Screenwriting : Horizon Scan by Craig D Griffiths

Hollywood (and the ticket buyers) takes a long time to change course. So trends usually take a long time to die off. Horror has been pronounced dead dozens of times over the past decades, but then a film that had already been made is released and makes a ton of money... and horror wasn't dead after all. As writers, it takes so long for a genre to really die.off, and so long for a long dead genre to be brought back to life, that we can easily predict what genres will sell based on what is selling tickets now. You are going to write 3 scripts a year - the business doesn't change that much every year. One of those scripts will still be in a hot genre.

Hi Craig,

I think you kinda have to split "Hollywood Big Budget" (which is what most people focus on in discussions about films) from the rest of the films made annually in order to arrive at a reasonable conclusion regarding trends, and what's being made in any given year.

First, a little data. Big Budget Hollywood (the major studios) mostly make franchise films. Around half of their films are franchise. Some take nearly two years to make. The major U.S. studios make a bit over 100 films a year. Those 100 films account for around 80% of the box office gross.

But another 800 films were released in the U.S. last year. And globally, almost 10,000 films were made.

So in those other 800 films (and in the other 9,000)....were there romantic comedies? Yep. Biopics? Yep. Period dramas? Yep. Musicals? Yep. Faith-based films? Yep. Westerns? Yep. Historical, Fantasy, Epic, War, Crime? Yep to all.

So I think that unless someone really pays attention to the entire production market, then it's easy to overlook how many films still get made in all of the genres. Maybe a major studio isn't making certain types of films, and hasn't for years, but you can bet that indie producers here and around the world are. And all one has to do is look at the latest AFM catalog of films to see how true that is.

That's the main reason why there has never been a better time in the history of the world to be a screenwriter or a filmmaker. Ever. From more diversity....to more subject matter....to more technology....to more channels/avenues.

Best fortunes in your creative endeavors, Craig!

Bill Costantini most definitely. Split things, keep splitting look at external forces, like ‘how did home video change the market’, is that similar to the impact of streaming. That may be the only question you are answering, that may be your thesis. That streaming is going to follow the Video model and one day by replaced by a new technology.

You may look at Horror and break it into its sub genres (not a horror expert), are slashers marking a comeback, are suspension horror on the rise?

These questions aren’t at an industry level. They will help you (as an analyst - which is the role you would be filling) gauge or form a plan for future actions.

So very high level analysis I have done.

Cinema was at risk of focusing on one style to much. The blockbuster. Once the blockbuster audience sours, which they will eventually. The other market segments would have already been entrenched in the cinema alternative. What changes that. The removal of the instrument that stopped studios owning distribution channels. So if Disney buys a cinema chain, they can schedule across streaming and theatrical. That sort of analysis.

How does this help? You make some inferences. Then watch to see if any of them are more likely as time and events happen. Now you already have a plan in place.

Like I said. This is the flip side of the chasing a trend post.

William Martell I would say horror is never going to be dead. It’s audience size will come and go. But a scare is a base human emotion. It is like angry teenage music. Every generation has its own form of rebellion. How (just like the type of horror) will change as the audience changes.

PS: thank you both for chiming in. It is good to have insightful discourse and explore views. I like to live my life with the “I am probably wrong” mindset. This prevents my own opinion and arrogance from getting in the way of learning.

When I stop learning you can nail the lid on, I’ll be done.

If Writers think they can predict trends, then forget screenwriting and concentrate on the corporate ladder and become a Executive in Charge. Hire filmmakers to create your vision/trend. That's what Jeffrey Katzenberg did at Disney and doing again at Quibi

Dan MaxXx: It will be interesting to see how Quibi (short for "Quick Bites") impacts the world of media consumption when it debuts next spring. Aimed at younger people who watch on average an hour of media content on their phones every day, it has a content-making lineup that includes dozens of big-name established directors, filmmakers, and actors. Some of the content will be serialized and will be played in short segments under 10 minutes, and some is stand-alone segments. But there are many planned shows with big-name talent on both sides of the camera, and I can't imagine how it could fail. I think even one of the Stage32 Vloggers mentioned in an earlier Vlog here that he is making short content, too - although I don't remember if he mentioned Quibi.

And the content providers get to keep their content, and can license it elsewhere after two years, if I recall correctly. It sounds like a win-win-win for everybody, including the paying subscribers/consumers. But there certainly are a lot of big-name people already involved in the content-making landscape for Quibi, and I'm sure there will be more to come. Quibi makes announcements quite frequently on its Twitter feed.

This could become a trend, in the sense of other companies trying to provide high-quality professional content intended solely for cell phones. And it could even affect how (some) professionals react regarding genres or sub-genres aimed at people who watch content on their cell phones. We'll see what happens.

Best fortunes in your creative endeavors, Dan!

Dan MaxXx I am glad you see the possibility. But since we can’t all be an executive at Disney, perhaps we should utilise such things for personal benefit. Things other than large studios exist.

I use Gordon Ramsey recipe for making eggs. But I am never going to open a restaurant or have a cooking show. That an example, before you take it literally and get sidetracked.

Perhaps doing this type of thinking will give writers a feeling that they have some control of their fates. No one has ever been harmed by forming an opinion on fact rather than faith.

We can use large scale techniques, methods and tools in a micro environment.

Netflix is doubling their Christmas content. There's a trend!

Karen Stark I have heard that we consume more uplifting and happy films during hard times. Perhaps Netflix is reading that indicator.

Craig, maybe so. As far as Netflix is concerned, I think they need to improve content across the board too. I've noticed there's a lack of romance coming through too. I mean when was the last time a good British Romantic Comedy came out.

Karen Stark I just Googled it. Nothing I recognise in 2019. Maybe “Yesterday” from 2018.

Netflix just needs that one movie to make you pay for one more month. If they can keep drip feeding the audience they sustain growth.

Are romcoms due for a big come back. I think so. But romcom 2.0, not the heavy formula stuff that was

pumped out. Not sure what the new evolution will look like. Perhaps a lot of gay romcoms. Have put make thought or analysis into it.

I love romantic comedies and a great British entry into that category was Man Up with Simon Pegg and Lake Bell, who was terrific in the film. I'd love to see more Brit movies as smart and as funny.

I work in all genres but my output over the past few years has been mainly in horror, romcoms and sci-fi. And, I've enjoyed being involved with some wonderful writers working in those genres. But I prefer to follow inspiration over trends.

Romcoms are good. Mostly because I can’t write them. I am bleak and humourless. I am dark drama and darker drama. I embrace my internal evil twin.

My wife says I should end every logline with “then everyone dies”.

Craig:

:LOL

Wives can be brutally honest.

I like, then everyone dies :)

Thanks Shawn. She is right unfortunately.