Producing : Is Hollywood Sleepwalking Toward Strike Three? by Richard "RB" Botto

As the industry continues to "consolidate" and the oversupply of workers continues to "oversupply" the future looks gloomy for worker bees.

But we really won't know anything until the end of march when rebooting the old productions are fully complete.

But I will add that shooting permits are down 23% when compared to last year.

To that last point, I do believe that will decrease significantly as mandates begin to roll out again, and they have, albeit in small doses. Expect that to increase in Q2 and Q3.

To follow, here's a headline from The Ankler this morning - Movie Biz Amps Up Casting for Busy Spring.

I believe there will be a heavy push - and endless motivation - to avoid another strike. Although, I do know many IATSE members who felt disrespected during the WGA and SAG shutdowns.

I hope IATSE/Teamsters get the contracts they'll be asking for and there isn't a third strike, Richard "RB" Botto. IATSE/Teamsters and their families really need work to continue (like the article says), and the industry still isn't back on its feet completely. I've heard a lot of WGA members and SAG-AFTRA members say they'll support IATSE/Teamsters if they strike because IATSE/Teamsters stood with them during their strikes.

Personally, Maurice Vaughan, I believe that the gates are opening a little bit more slowly (although accelerating recently) because many are in "wait and see" mode.

Keep your eye on this one for sure... These folks are the ones left standing when the music stops playing (more AI, CGI, VFX generated content). See Tyler Perry's interview yesterday about halting the $800M expansion on his GA studio? It's because of that... he knows he can make films from the cpu and it's the fine folks in the IA and Teamsters who won't have many jobs as this progresses... https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/02/i-just-dont-see-h...

Perry has a righteous vision of the future. If you haven't seen Sora's mind blowing output, it's worth a look.

Unfortunately, Sora and the like could also be a death knell for all manners of industry craft jobs, and ancillary businesses. Actors may be so-last-year soon too.

The reverse is that when it's a bit more seasoned, anyone with an idea will be able to generate a film without massive expense. This too has plusses and minuses.

I certainly hope not.

One can certainly hope, but the tsunami is visible in the near distance and it's heading this way fast.

One wonders though if the latest "wonder" of AI will be like the swells of enthusiasm for 3D that happen every couple of decades and then die down again. Also, how will the public's growing distrust of media's "truthiness" begin to sour people and drive them towards more authenticity. One can imagine more people turning to live theatre to have a guaranteed real experience... unless they're holograms or realistic cyborgs (insert winking emoji here).

And here's to IATSE and the Teamsters getting a solid good deal for themselves. Maurice, I too have heard WGA and SAG members expressing their reciprocal support.

Let's hope not, and that the studios come to the table to negotiate seriously to avoid another disruption. Or that it happens quickly before all the major work restarts (it's been a very slow return...)

The die has been cast.

Jack Binder, I've heard from many execs that the wait and see approach to all this is partially responsible. Although I will say, requests for screenplays on this platform for the first 2 months of the year are up well over 50% over November/Dec. Reads are happening in anticipation of things opening up in Q's 2-4.

Let's hope it gets settled quickly and peacefully.