Screenwriting : Is the AI Bubble About to Burst in Hollywood? by Geoff Hall

Geoff Hall

Is the AI Bubble About to Burst in Hollywood?

I’ve never been tempted to use AI to help me with writing a screenplay our outline. I already have an imagination that surpasses what AI can do, so why bother?

This is what caught my eye:

“I'm all for AI if it can give me more time to write my specs. Why is no one making one that can wash and fold my laundry? Or automatically do my taxes? Time will tell what comes true, maybe a mix of both, but I do think what AI people have never understood is that the human imagination far surpasses anything we can do with tech, and tech will never be able to function without at least one human there to dream for it.

AI is a tool, but it's not one any great writer or director would need to put their work together, because our imaginations already do that for us.”

Indeed, I share his thoughts. I’d love an AI that could do my tax return! What are your thoughts about the article? Is the AI bubble about to burst?

https://nofilmschool.com/ai-bubble-burst?

Is the AI Bubble About to Burst in Hollywood?
Is the AI Bubble About to Burst in Hollywood?
This Adam Conover interview gave me a lot of hope and excitement.
Maurice Vaughan

"I already have an imagination that surpasses what AI can do, so why bother?" That’s how I feel, Geoff Hall. I hope the AI bubble bursts soon. Adam Conover said, "Conover criticizes companies like Facebook and Google for their massive spending on AI research without producing tangible results, citing Google's recent search engine update as an example of prioritizing profit over quality." I've heard different professionals say that AI costs too much for what it accomplishes.

Matthew Kelcourse

Ditto Geoff Hall and Maurice Vaughan - most creative artists have been saying that for a long while.

Dan MaxXx

did this AI replacing writers thing happened already? Maybe check back in year 2030 and poll how many writers were forced to quit because of AI

Geoff Hall

Dan MaxXx I came across an article -can’t think where, now - that there has been evidence that suggests some adverts have been generated by AI. Start small…

Geoff Hall

Dan MaxXxConover points out that large language models (LLMs), a common type of AI software, are running out of training data and may not improve significantly in the future. There's a limited amount of info out there for them to steal from, and when they reach the end, there's nothing new for them to be able to evolve.” The emphasis is mine.

My thought is why would I want to participate in the theft of another writer’s material, when it produces something that lacks nuance and subtext, because despite all the theft, AI can’t produce what I can. We should remember to highlight the A in AI.

Dan Guardino

It's hard to imagine AI producing a great screenplay at the moment. I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't predict what the future holds. When it comes to screenwriting, it seems that the "gurus" who profit from talented writers might be the ones searching for a new job.

Dan MaxXx

Geoff Hall writers like Sheridan, Rhimes, Ryan Murphy... they dont have to worry about AI taking away their jobs & incomes but the average writer, exec, staff worker will feel their incomes slashed. My VFX friends have already seen their paychecks getting smaller and smaller but they're doing more work.

Kinda reminds me of the website boom of 1990's. Web designers were charging $50-$100+ per hour for labor. Then website for dummies software came out. Salaries drop like bricks. Now anyone can design a competent website for $20 bucks.

So basically, write better than the field of average writers.

Tom Lapke

This is a topic that I find endlessly fascinating and I am proud that Stage 32 has taken the steps to educate its members on how to ethically use AI as a writer. As a matter of fact, we have a new 2-part class coming up on this very topic. If you have any interest in AI, regardless of what side of the line you fall on for the topic, I would highly recommend it to anyone looking to further form their opinion on AI in the arts, specifically writing.

https://www.stage32.com/education/c/education-classes?h=stage-32-2-part-class-enhancing-script-development-by-using-ai-and-chatgpt-as-a-writing-assistant

Kiril Maksimoski

Amateurs (such as myself) don't freight. Just do your work and learn craft...I have an auto-robot system implemented in my day-job and now we have whole teams fixing things bot's fail to do...and the bot's ain't nothing but a bunch of other people...so the real competition here is cheap labor...and no industry can resist that ;)

CJ Walley

The bubble is the narrative, and yes the narrative that AI is going to take over everything has certainly adjusted in the last month or two. The reality, however, is that AI continues to soldier on in terms of development and is still making leaps and bounds. In many areas, it's becoming normalised, particularly now on Facebook with users regularly generating AI adjusted images of themselves to look better or just for fun.

The overriding factor is that end-users don't want heartfelt content that they know has been generated in AI, and at the moment that's showing particularly with stories and music. Developers would be foolish to try and push too hard against that. Where AI will get exciting is with the tools that enhance development. On my last rewrite assignment, there were some robotic tasks I would have liked to have seen automated.

Geoff Hall

CJ Walley “Where AI will get exciting is with the tools that enhance development.” That seems to go back to Covener’s argument about laundry and taxes and freeing up time for us to do more interesting things. Not so much as replacing us, but freeing us up from the mundane things.

Mark Simborg

I once asked ChatGPT to write a scene from The Office - like an original scene - that focuses on an interaction between Michael and Dwight. It actually wasn't bad. Certainly not writer-room quality but way better than a lot of the stuff amateur TV writers put out. It was laugh-out-loud funny in places and had the characters more or less 100% right. So..... there you go... Of course, that was just a scene. I'm pretty sure the longer you get -- that is, if you asked ChatGPT to write an entire episode, for example -- the lower the quality.

Marcel Nault Jr.

I used to be on the fence about ChatGPT and its practical use for all of us writers out there. However, I'm a non-English speaker and I have a difficulty structuring my thoughts and my writing most of the time. So, I've been using it for some time now and it definitely helped me becoming more concise and straight-forward with my writing.

Keep in mind: from an artistic point of view, I will never use AI. I only use ChatGPT for my screenwriting projects. I write the drafts and I ask for advice, corrections, revisions, etc. That's all.

Jeff Bassetti

ChatGPT is a good research assistant and that is it for me, otherwise, I sit down and bleed.

John Gostomski

AI is a tool for things you want to play with. In the last year, I concluded my little adventure to start anew. The material that I gained from the " You can't make this stuff up!" project is organized properly or improperly, I see many stories. This is on me! The tools that I use will assist me will not write my work. Never know what you can do with technology until you plan. Check this out, Prometheus vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBxT0zgYMQ4&ab_channel=LaurisBergs - The human connection with technology as a tool

Geoff Hall

Jeff Bassetti haha, Jeff. How many pints of blood per day? I'd never linked screenwriting with haemophilia, before!

Jeff Bassetti

Sometimes just enough, LOL Just butchering Hemingway's “There is nothing to writing. All you do is sit down at a typewriter and bleed.”

Sam Rivera

AI has its moment though I do reside on the side that is wary of its usages due to what can come it but I can admit it useful for simple things like, take Grammarly for example, I've had it since high school but I never once thought of it as AI until realizing how much of AI it is! Stage 32 exec Tyler Winther sat down with us for an Exec Hour and explained his uses for AI, you should it out if you're part of the WR!>>https://www.stage32.com/writers-room

Geoff Hall

Jeff Bassetti hahaha!

Dan Guardino

Hollywood might bust before the AI bubble which might not be a bad thing. However, I don’t think too many screenwriters will lose their jobs because AI because AI can’t write a screenplay. I tried it on a few scenes and it does a shitty job. The action was like a novel and the dialogue was like a robot talking. However, I think it works for asking questions and stuff but it is all just coming from stuff already on the internet.

Charles V Abela

Well, there is absolutely no pride in AI writing one's screenplay. Irrespective, don't judge AI while in its infancy. One needs to walk before one can run. AI is still learning to walk, albeit it does it so much faster than most. All this mambo jumbo and ill-fired one-line comments with no substance can be thought of as "resistance to change." Nothing more, nothing less. The less fortunate and less educated (not necessarily though as 'not being as intelligent as those who can write but certainly not part of the network), will now be in a better position. They can equally think of a plot. The ones nearer the top, will feel a bit uncomfortable because the gap between the 'have and have nots,' will narrow. People mention Grammarly. Heavens, what do they think Grammarly is, or Google, or Yahoo, or the simple computer. I think, at this stage, we have started to hear the "the reveille call" aimed at the cannon fodder troops aka most writers and by the elite, very often though it's the sound of their own bugle defending the fortifications... their castle.

Dan Guardino

Charles V Abela You are right but the AI is in its infancy. That is what has a lot of screenwriters worried. They aren’t defending their castle they are just worried that it may make screenwriters obsolete.

John Gostomski

The key not to be a luddite!

Hear ye, hear ye:

Eenie meenie chili beanie, the spirits are about to speak. BJM

Are they friendly spirts! RJS

Friendly, just listen!!!!! BJM

Believe in the sage wisdom of Bullwinkle J. Moose

So AI is part of the landscape decide to work with it or not! There is framework for its use!

The WGA has an agreement with Hollywood. Since Hollywood or some facsimile thereof needs to make money thus keeping their world world humming this debate that will be ongoing.

Internally and externally!

Imagination is the true generator of creativity. The "perceptron" was a creation of that organic computer that sits atop your shoulders.

Mark Deuce

I think it has really just started Geoff Hall and is the future and why Disney is spending millions buying Ai platforms as well as other studios are doing the same. Like it or hate it, this is the future of things going forward.

Geoff Hall

Here’s what happens when we simply just roll over and play dead. Jobs are on the line in the gaming industry. Whilst there may appear to be a framework for its use, John Gostomski that would clearly not be a universal constant. Here’s news of another call to strike.

https://www.stage32.com/lounge/acting/GAMING-INDUSTRY-History-repeats-it...

Geoff Hall

Mark Deuce maybe that’s why Disney is struggling? They’ve already been laying off people. maybe their money isn’t invested in the right things, namely human talent and is invested in technological replacement of humans? Just a thought

John Gostomski

All I am saying in my professional opinion and experience with the wisdom of "Bullwinkle J. Moose" (due to the people unenlightened I have met because of their attitude/s), one understands that as a artistic/tech type "zero trust" and still verify. This way you have an idea leading to a business understanding.

As for Disney, I think that you might be right. Collecting assets for value might redivert your capital as you want to the asset collection to attain more value. Bruce Springsteen just sold his music portfolio to Sony for $500 x 10^6. What Disney is doing is "milking" the portfolio and presenting (milking is a harsh work so utilizing might be better) it to a new generation of people with maybe the "geezer" generation (everyone over 30 incrementing/decrementing at the same time like those who were once young to control the purity of the narrative "timeline"). Seems to be a Hollywood business decision though with the "streaming" companies being somewhat successful, buying the "aging" business/model can revamp it with the demand for "NEW" fresh content.

If not, then you turn off the "TV" (internet or whatever the name flavor of the day is).

Target marketing is just that, Target marketing. Remember the "eyeballs" on marketing/advertising this is push economics to pay for the salaries of who (hourly / project, hourly / 52 weeks, salary/52weeks and the shareholders really are the value investors. The last two being the primary with the 2nd being necessary and the 1st being for project to project.

Are we, in the wisdom of "BJM" just looking at another version of "HWAcct". Like other things in this economy are subject to commoditization, assetization, auditing and accounting rules for publicly traded in a changing entertainment industry.

I was once told by someone in the industry at the time, once you put it out in the market it is done!

As a writer, I have a strategy for my work. I think it will be successful!

A wise man once said, If you are "Red Green" fan "keep your stick on the ice". His wisdom focuses more concretely on what need to be done to be aware more than the metaphysical wisdom of "BJM". The latter is awareness with the former being the reality of what is going to make a decent profit in this industry. "Red Green": We're all in this together!

Mark Deuce

That is possible for sure Geoff Hall and time will tell. Have a great weekend.

Charles V Abela

AI. Thank you Dan Guardino Geoff Hall Mark Deuce John Gostomski and Mark Deuce. I think we share some commonality. The fact is that 'it is fear and panic from writers' perhaps 'educators' who I believe are the ones particularly worried. Simple story. Fact. 1980. Just got fired from a computer company. So I said okay I am a businessman now. I was second person in Sydney with IBM word processing machines. System/37?? forgot. It was revolutionary at the time. 40 pages per week in the Financial Review about the pluses and minuses. Non-financial papers, it was doomsday reporting. My 10 minutes of stardom ever, took place on a radio show. The man behind the golden mike (as he was known, maybe golden throat) challenged me saying this is the death knell of the secretary. That was forty plus years ago. we still work and thrive with these. Forefathers so to speak of AI. They are packaged under differently coined names now. What almost killed me, (but never threatened the the secretary,) were the fees I had to pay as leases to IBM. The outlay could have bought me 150 fast laptops, many more at to-days money. Today with a $2000 computer you can prove your worth. And one has to find new innovative way if needs be. For me to exist I had to them them into personalized letter machines and I kept rolling into different things. Look at me now, I write and nobody reads. That's how it goes.

John Gostomski

There is no fear! Change is constant! As I focus my time on this "investment" project, I am involved with emerging tech. I plan to stay there to fuel my work comes from so many sources references. That world where " you make this stuff up". Is it easier to learn to paint then it is to learn to shoot elegant photography? Roughly the same amount of time and there may be a variation in the price of the materials. If you want to display your work you have to find a gallery, start your own on the internet.

This is life, people need to be aware of what they are getting into. Study the great movie actors, directors, Moguls, studios. They were in "blue ocean" for the longest time. They ascended, peaked to descend to the state we have today.

During the depression "Ted Kennedy" as an investment banker helped to consolidate if I remember corrected 100+ independent studios to the world we grew to understand and love. He walked out with about $5 million dollars during the depression. He knew what he was doing!

Screw around and you lose. Go for the win and never look back. The economy is the economy with ever changing tastes in how the stars of Vaudeville are being presented on tour. Eyeballs tell the story of successes, failures and cult classics. So these were written, optioned, pitched to get the proper budget looking for a return higher then the production costs.

There you go man, keep as cool as you can! Face piles of trials with smiles, it riles them to believe that you perceive the "web" they weave. Keep on thinking "Free"! (Lyric line from an ancient song from 10,000 years ago (An question on the 10,000 years. All time from the final keystroke is in the past so might as well be 10,000 years). In that time small changes might have occurred whether they affect the larger market may be no but does it set a precedence? Deals happen all the time!

Dan Guardino

John Gostomski I have no fear but people who are employed as screenwriters do because they see it as a threat to their employment.

John Gostomski

I agree as this conversation about making sure to understand what is going on. And adjust as is necessary to keep the markets viable and healthy.

John Gostomski

I have to make a correction! Ted Kennedy should be "Joe Kennedy" the investment banker not his son Ted! Sorry about that!

Mark Deuce

Ai can be amazing if put to good use.

Charles V Abela

Dan Guardino Well, my nationality dictates that one must worry, otherwise you don't know you're alive. Absolutely exaggerated and even more, damn stupid. I can feel the arrows coming at me from across the oceans. Never solved anything for me, even to this day, I have not learnt and still persist. Back to your comment, I do understand the screenwriters and how they feel. However, we are evolving constantly and thus we need to change. As self-employed, it is incumbent on them to change with the times and with the technology and find new ways and new ideas. No different from revising and editing one's screenplay for the umpteenth time. If we keep passing on constant compassion and pleasantries, then we are not helping them at all. Bit harsh but it's the truth.

Yair Avivi

Ai may take our jobs as screenwriters, but not our ideas. i think a good screenwriter will know how to use this tool

Dan Guardino

Charles V Abela I said employed screenwriter not self-employed screenwriters.

Charles V Abela

Accept my apologies. However, it's no different from self-employed. For truck drivers looking at how the driving industry is changing, they are presented with the same problems, in principle. Re-train or get into some kind of a gaming industry pressing buttons instead of shifting gears to drive the truck from an office or perhaps from home? Some may have to self-train. I welcome your thoughts, because I believe this is fundamental how people in the workforce have to think these days.

Charles V Abela

@Yair Avivi. Spot on. However, I won't be so sure. It can generate ideas of its own if you challenge it. And it does it before you blink your eyes. I have used AI for quick interpretation of aspects I don't understand. I found Google gives 5 full pages of ads and doesn't even understand or cannot handle my question. AI is zillion times faster than the Yahoo and the Google and the rest... including encyclopedias. On one occasion my question was not clear and it gave me an outline of a plot, which I did not require. Plus it makes you feel hollow as to why you're wasting your time... if you cannot conceive the plot. The reality is it's fast and informative. Specifically on one occasions I challenged (silly word I am using) on three nuances of the word, adjective, adverb, whatever and it changed according depending on my ultimate intention was. No google will give you that and it would have taken me 20 goes at $35 to talk to my editor over a few days if he or she could make time available. So at the moment it's a bonus for researching and for using it as a sharpening tool. If I were to give AI this paragraph it would show me to me to my chagrin that I'm so weak and delight that I have learnt something new. Hell waffling too much.

Charles V Abela

Dan Guardino Accept my apologies. However, it's no different from self-employed. For truck drivers looking at how the driving industry is changing, they are presented with the same problems, in principle. Re-train or get into some kind of a gaming industry pressing buttons instead of shifting gears to drive the truck from an office or perhaps from home? Some may have to self-train. I welcome your thoughts, because I believe this is fundamental how people in the workforce have to think these days.

John Gostomski

Dan, this is what I have been saying! Don't fear the reaper as you may find a way to get his "sickle", him/her/it (Deadpool: Gender confusion) to take his job. Gold rush, shovel seller to sell for the dig, dig, dig! Once the vein is played out what do you do? High pressure water hoses to deep mines so so on and so forth. Ever been in a mine, awesome in their later design and planning to the actually blowing up of a entire mountain for different type of resources to be acquired. This "gold" value position view while interesting to the market value will change the topography of the landscape for hydrological cycle. What do you do once you learn this read a story, write a story.

AI is a tool, interestingly enough is was just discussed that lawmakers are in the 60's and above. Do they understand, are they connected, are they learning about this technology to be emersed to understand enough.

All the data to train these machines was created by us. Since Disney is acquiring content for its portfolio, this can be used, reused, reused, reused, reused technically in perpetuity! See the genius or business logic but that is for Disney. Amazon apparently needed a studio based on who was producing their content. Disney has a studio but where is the creatives for storytelling. Hollywood has a interest in reintroducing cash hits to the children of the children that made content successful.

You apparently buy or with the old model wait a while reintroduce the content say "Mary Poppins" original to the next generation minus the attempted "reboots" all written by someone of that generation or slightly off to include key points that will update it for the new or next generation.

Writers write, the rest is business contact, connections with sincerity to their craft. "Misery" a movie was modified for audiences from a book, to a script to editing content for content that would be the most effective. And there is a story in that story with comparative final draft and the final edit for the studio for distribution.

Don't fear the reaper, "they/them" (deadpool gender confusion) might be you next job rewriting the narrative. Family guy ripped off (borrowed) from the Simpsons effectively so are owned by who these days with what controls allowed by contract for periodic reboots like "Ted" and "Ted2" both enjoyable but simplistic or "A million ways to die in the West"!

I am a storyteller and boy with the last 12 years have come to many conclusions about where to draw my material from. AI draws from a collective so is it accepted as creative work or plagiarism. But what is the difference between plagiarism and a reboot.

I see the "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon"

https://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/tech/web/kevin-bacon-six-degrees-sxsw/ind...

The game, which celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, requires players to link celebrities to Bacon, in as few steps as possible, via the movies they have in common. The more odd or random the celebrity, the better. For example, O.J. Simpson was in “The Naked Gun 33⅓” with Olympia Dukakis, who was in “Picture Perfect” with Kevin Bacon.

Inspired by “six degrees of separation,” the theory that nobody is more than six relationships away from any other person in the world, the game was dreamed up in 1994 by Brian Turtle and two classmates at Albright College in Reading, Pennsylvania. They were watching “Footloose” on TV when it was followed by another Kevin Bacon movie, and then another.

Dan MaxXx

Any writers here actually lost a job to "AI""? And this only in Hollywood?

Charles V Abela

My simple thought, before I go to bed, is that writers are spending far more time writing about about a real or a perceived problem, than concentrating on writing scripts or educating. I understand two giants could be behind AI - BG and EM. The first thing to do is to formulate a strategy how to overcome the whatever the problem is ... if indeed it's a problem. But it's pointless.There is only one way, you have to swing with the punches and find a better way or a different profession. It is serious but it needs to be addressed positively. I had ups and downs in my business many a time. I had to keep re-inventing myself and still came out ahead. I am sure most people, if they try, AI would be a thing of the past and they will be happy to live with it following different new paths.

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