Filmmaking / Directing : Is Hollywood Dead by Eugene Cobb

Hi, Eugene Cobb. I agree with some of the things Justine Bateman said, but I don't think Hollywood is dead. I just read about four spec scripts in the past few days, and one of them was for about $2MM. And I've constantly been hearing about projects going into development and being released (indie and studio). Things have changed/are changing in Hollywood, but it's not dead.

Sure there will always been someone who strikes it big with a spec sale, that will happen even when the majority of productions are going to be AI, that's not an indicator of a vibrant industry that is thriving. Christopher Nolan will make another movie and it most likely be successful because he's both talented and understands how to market a movie properly and guides the marketing team. But his success is not going to tella different story than the one all of us in the industry are living, word on the street is 50% of the film industry is out of work. That to me says collapse. And I lived through the 2008 financial crash in the film industry and veterans then said they'd never seen anything like that for lack of production. This is what happened when you had the keys to the kingdom to media conglomerates, the parallels to the 1980's corporate raiders are becoming frighteningly similar.

No. There was nothing really new in the article that hasn't been voiced before.

Here's the actual problem. Lately Hollywood has been overestimating their niche audiences while neglecting their main audience. Their focus has been the wrong approach and even though they tried to push it as hard as they could, it wouldn't move an inch and actually lost ground. They didn't stop there though. Instead of admitting their attempts at a new direction failed, they decided to blame their customers insulting them every chance they could get. The actors were offended, the directors were insulted, blah, blah, blah... Meanwhile the audiences were saying, "Who the hell are you?" If you go to a circus (This may be a dated comparison.) it's the job of the clowns to make you laugh. We don't care about their personal issues. We're just there to be entertained. If you insult us, we won't come back.

Philip, you're talking about another reality where the studios care about the audience at all. There are no audiences to the studios, not anymore. There are consumers and nothing more, and movies are just content. The studios are intentionally destroying the old system, that's the plan. They want the Netflix model on steroids. They want a streaming service, quality of the product is optional, move to a subscriber based system so they don't have to worry about marketing individual movies, overwhelm the subscribers with content, spend the bare minimum of P&A, break the unions, shoot the minimum needed for each project to get tax credits where ever they can get them, and fill the rest with AI. No one is thinking about feelings, if we work in the film industry today, I'm concerned about survival. This is what you get when you allow media conglomerates to take over, they don't care about tradition or making good product. They care about making as much money as they can until the business is used up and then they sell it off and move on, it is the return of the corporate raiders of the 1980's. I'm going to keep saying it until people start listening this isn't a phase, this is the new norm.

They said that about TV, VHS, Cable, Streaming...meanwhile $39 Billion Box Office projected 2024. Film and Television projected to hit $304 Billion. Both demonstrating 6% growth. Gloom and doom is great headline bait for media publishing. Opportunity has never been better.

Domestic box office revenue is down 24% year-to-date, Hollywood production is down 40% compared to peak TV levels in 2022. The number of movie shoots decreased by 18% in the second quarter of 2024, AMC Theatres saw a 25% decline in attendance in the second quarter of 2024, The European cinema chain saw a 9.6% decrease in visitors and lower revenue. Whatever projections of growth are going to be based a few titles that may bring in box office like "Wicked" to name one... But thats projections. Again people keep trying to sell the idea that everything is fine in the industry see people are still making money. That money is all going to shareholders not, the folks that work in the industry. Sure it's not dead, but it's entire business model is about to be overhauled till it will be unrecognizable to us today. Think I'm wrong? Ask a teenager how many times they and their friends went to the movies together last month? The answer will make you sad.

Philip David Lee Nailed it!

I think everyone here keeps missing the point of the article. If you work in the film industry you are never going to be able to prosper again if you stay working for the studios. They aim to keep it all, and for the jobs they don't cut, you will be paid below current rates because they are going to break the unions, so you will never own a home, you will rent the rest of your life, you will not have savings, there will be no residuals, your quality of life will be just a few steps up from minimum wage. I'm not exaggerating, you will not be able to afford health care, your children's educations will not be paid for. This is the new corporate dogma of the studios, they don't care if they destroy lives or careers in pursuit of maximizing profits. Think I'm wrong? Ask the filmmakers behind Coyote v. Acme or Bat Girl their films were shelved for tax write offs, think about how hard it is to get a movie made, now the studio on a whim decides to do that. They didn't just make on the balance sheet the budget, they calculated how much in residuals they'd have to pay if it aired on Max, and calculated the savings on that. Raised By Wolves? Gone so they don't have to pay residuals. We the workers of the film industry, to the studios, are the problem. AI could also mean Automated Imagination, they replace us on the assembly line with robots, Hollywood is just an assembly line with palm trees.

Daniel J. Pico Nailed it!

The industry is global and emerging markets are building their own infrastructures to attarct international co-productions and grow thier homegrown talent. The distribution bandwidth is so vast and there is a never ending need for product to fill the pipeline. When that is coupled with an evolving studio industry literally inside of Hollywood, that has tech and Wall Street now at the levers, it is no doubt a difficult time in that corner of the industry. However, I think the future is extremely bright on a global level and independent filmmkers have opportunities to thrive and succeed that never existed before. It's an evolution that is plowing forward.

Sam Sokolow case in point. The Korean's are making incredible movies right now!

With the abundant resources and tools, the opportunity for writer/directors to make their own films has never been better than right now. We storytellers will soon compete with AI until the audiences realize they were duped by AI. Our intended audiences may revolt or cancel Hollywood and it's profitable distribution system(s) but our intended audiences will still long for "unique, raw and creatively daring work." as Bateman stated in her article.

What new genre are you looking for?

Here here, Paul Rivers!

I think there's a component that's missing form the article about the mess the distribution system is in and also there's a lot of high talk here about how ew can make raw movies, and out do the GAI using bastards at the studios! All that might be true but we at the same time we have to have an indie revolt against the distribution companies. None of us can survive with Zero Dollars upfront any longer for our films. If the distributors won't pay a fair price, we don't sell, and we have to get into the mindset that we may have to take our films on the road with us and go like a traveling circus town to town with our DCP in our glove box and be prepared to talk to the local and sell our film one screen at a time. But I can tell you from having gone through the distribution process for my feature with sales agents and distributors, I'd rather go one screen at a time splitting the box office with the house, then back to begging for my quarterly reports and after five years get them to find out they were doctored to show a negative balance. This is the game they play, and I can't think of another business where they get us to make the product and we give it to them to sell and they keep all the profits like we are nothing. Never again.

Daniel J. Pico "...all that might be true..." Nope it isn't. NONE of it is true. The structure which has evolved is one of a failing distribution system which is still controlled by a failing cartel. You MUST take control of your product from now on. But that's back to the future. It's the reason for the IPG's FilmPod structure.

Thanks for your answer, Shadow Dragu-Mihai, Esq., Ipg. Yes, it's time for all of us to claim our sovereignty.